The 2019 Horizon Report acknowledges the possible confusion in its own projections, citing that the 2016 report placed VR as “two to three years from widespread adoption” but that the 2018 report forecasted mixed reality as another “four to five years from adoption, even further out.” The Horizon Report’s core question informs this project as well: “Why does such an approach to enhancing the students’ learning experience remain so elusive in terms of mainstream adoption?”

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Diffusion of Innovations Theory

Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations theory assists in answering this question by exploring some of the processes, and thus obstacles, to critical adoption of an innovation such as educational technology. Within this theory, an innovation is defined as such if it is perceived as such. For instance, although VR can be traced back at least decades and earns mention in the 2007 Horizon Report as “virtual worlds,” it experienced a resurgence of potential applications, especially in the field of education, with the work of Palmer Luckey to develop a prototype for the Oculus Rift in 2010. With the rapid rate of change and advancement in the technology itself, VR is currently perceived as innovative.

 

Beyond perception, though, Rogers’ theory offers a model for the innovation-decision process, which facilitates analysis of the 2019 Horizon Report’s core question, Why so elusive? The innovation-decision process involves five stages:

 

1. Knowledge: Much like the TPACK Model, knowledge in Rogers’ theory refers to both knowledge about the technology and how it may be applied, presenting various challenges to potential adopters.

2. Persuasion: This stage seeks to move a potential adopter’s attitude positively or negatively toward the innovation. Persuasion is built around knowledge about characteristics of the innovation, including relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability.

3. Decision: This stage refers to adoption or rejection of an innovation, but in fact, this decision can occur within any other stage of the process.

4. Implementation: Because this stage is practical, there is still some degree of uncertainty and a need to continue influencing the knowledge and attitudes of potential adopters.

   5. Confirmation: This stage refers to confirmation of the decision and thus

       results in continuance of discontinuance of an innovation.

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Clearly, availability of a technology does not result in immediate adoption, and education is typically a bit slower to adopt than other market segments. Within the conversation about VR, for instance, Goldman Sachs reported in 2016 that 200,000 developers had come on board to create game content for Oculus within a year after Facebook bought the company, but the context application was pointing toward entertainment rather than education. With Goldman Sachs reporting a $106 billion videogame market contrasted with a $12 billion market for K-12 and higher education combined, it is not surprising that companies would target entertainment first and later turn attention to market expansion opportunities. From another perspective, education has traditionally fallen into the category of later adopters since, as the OECD explains in its 2019 report on “Measuring Innovation in Education,” “Innovation is not an end in itself: it should improve some educational outcome.”

 

Barriers to adoption in education are best aligned with the knowledge and persuasion stages of Rogers’ theory. Goldman Sachs identifies “the user experience, technology constraints, the development of content and applications, and price as the key hurdles to adoption.” Two years later, Christy Pettey of Gartner doubled down on these elements as persistent challenges that have not been overcome yet and thus pose continuing obstacles for VR to move beyond the purview of innovators (with the help of institutional early adopters) and into a mainstream late adoption phase. According to Pettey, VR still needs to improve its user interface, availability, access, and control. Concurrently, Kevin Parrish of Digital Trends identified lack of content and price as obstacles to critical adoption of VR. Pettey is insistent that these features are progressing so that VR may hit the mainstream in 2020, but at the same time, these analysts are speaking to a broader consumer base such that adoption in education may be further out.

 

As OECD suggests and Roger’s Diffusion of Innovations theory confirms, knowledge of a technology is not enough to ensure adoption, although training in using the technology is eventually essential. Pedagogical soundness is critical to ensure that the technology will meet the learning outcomes, fulfilling a perceived gap in an excellent way. This need points to Rogers’ application of relative advantage, that the innovative technology will meet a perceived need in a way that is otherwise not possible.

 

This constellation of what-ifs supports the uncertainty behind the Horizon Report’s ever-fluctuating timeline for VR adoption as an educational trend. VR currently requires innovators in education who gain the support of institutional early adopters. Innovators are in a position to demonstrate the relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability of a new technology that generates the persuasive knowledge needed to lead a critical majority toward adoption of the innovation.

One such innovator is featured here.